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Thursday, December 07, 2006

The post-abundance era

I like that term. I think the author of this article has hit upon the right name for what we are running in to. Post-abundance pretty much says it all. Abundance is a relative term. Post-abundance won't mean that anybody can't get what they want, just that maybe there won't be quite enough for everybody.
In an earlier post I wrote about the Olduvai Theory which is the idea that the world is facing a point of reduced per capita energy availablity. My point then was that this reduction does not mean we are going to be producing less energy only that we are going to be growing our energy supply more slowly than the population increases. I am almost certain that this is already beginning to happen since we have barely been keeping even for the last two or three decades. This subtle phenomenon will have the perverse effect of reduced abundance even though we are still producing at record rates. Post-abundance economics will of course result in a global zero-sum game since, by definition when anything is in limited supply, those who continue to increase their consumption will be withholding consumption from somebody else. Again, when the population is growing faster than the availability of goods, increased production does not mean increased abundance.
As the author of the article warns, there will be many pipers to pay as this plays out in the coming decades. Wars. International and intranational strife will be the order of the day. But eventually there will be a point of convergence when everyone will realize, that's all there is, there ain't no more. Then we will be in a new state of grace. All of us. We won't have any choice. I don't know how long it will take for us to work through to this new reality. I am an old man and may only see the opening moves. But some of you out there will see it through to the end game. This isn't something that we can pass off to "future generations." The new reality will then bare its other fang. Not only do we not have enough to keep our grand, technological miracle of a world going, there will be no more easily extracted resources to rebuild a new industrial age either. That really is all there is, there really ain't no more.
[Link: The post-abundance era]

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