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Monday, December 07, 2009

Test Post from Word

I just discovered I can post to blogs directly from Microsoft word. This is a test post to test that possibility.

Well, it looks like it works. Amazing. This is my first upgrade to MS Office in many years. They have definately moved it into modern times. It actually seems to be integrated with the web in many ways.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Trying Windows Live

This is a test of the Writer feature in Windows Live to see how it works with the Blogger system.  Please disregard.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

What "Lower Consumption" Means

[Link: The Oil Drum: Campfire | What "Lower Consumption" Means] "The fevered frenzy of Industrial Civilization’s resource consumption appears to have finally reached its apex and begun its decline in this, the first decade of the twenty-first century. A closer look at the physical realities of resource extraction reveals that the resource situation is, in fact, terminal for our high-consumin’ civilization. Resource depletion is a predicament requiring adaptation to an entirely new low-consumption paradigm, rather than a problem to be solved with technological or social solutions. As a country, we need to start the conversation about what a lower-consumption, resource-poor society would look like, and begin the appropriate preparations."

These are the types of discussions we should all be having today. You and I cannot be certain of what the future will hold. It is certainly possible that a new, unpredicted energy source or technological trick will allow us to move on into the future with our existing lifestyle. Possible but not probable. I don't know about you but I have been taught that to assume the improbable is normally not the best way to do your critical planning. Even if we could continue on, the earth and its climate seem to be telling us we can't anyway. I think that we are approaching a point of crisis in society. A point where most of us will understand in our gut that something needs to be done but won't really know what to do. It is thought exercises like these that might allow us to move in the right direction when that time comes.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Big flat TV sales could lead to big stress on power grid

[Link: McClatchy] "But the bigger picture, many say, is one of unnecessary stress on the nation's electricity supply for years to come."

I read articles like this and I have to chuckle. If we are aware of the stress an appliance like flat screen TV's will place on our power grid, and actually think it will be enough to strain it, how in the world can we be contemplating replacing our auto fleet with electric cars. The electricity requirements for a world full of electric cars, charging away between trips, must be horrendous. Has anyone stopped to wonder where all the new energy is going to come from if our grid is already strained in order to accomodate our TV watching.

Come on folks. Those cute little electric cars are going to need thousands of new power plants (most of them coal fired), all generating vast increases in CO2 emissions and other pollutions associated with power generation, to keep charged up. We are essentially going to be trading the pollution of the existing fleet of internal combustion engines with the pollution of coal powered power plants. This doesn't even include the added energy and pollution required to build and maintain all of these new power stations. We don't have a bunch of electrical energy laying around unused. Our TV's need all they can get.

Monday, October 05, 2009

Peak Oil: The End Of the Oil Age is Near, Deutsche Bank Says

[Link: Environmental Capital - WSJ] "Deutsche Bank expects the electric car to become a truly “disruptive technology” which takes off around the world, sending demand for gasoline into an “inexorable and accelerating decline.”

Five years ago I bought a new car. I had just retired and I wanted to have a car I could depend on in my retirement years. I told my wife that this could possible be the last gasoline powered car we would ever own. Our next car could very well be electric. At the time, we got a good chuckle out of that.

Well, it looks like Deutsche Bank has come to the same conclusion. Predicting the end of the oil age, they say the electric car will replace the internal combustion engine powered car that has come to symbolize the material age that we are living in. The Peak Oilers (myself included) have been saying that the oil age is eminent for some time now but they have been assuming the oil supply will begin to dwindle and we will be forced to give up our addiction whether we like it or not. I think Deutsche Bank is underestimating how many other ways we will find to use the oil if we don't use it in our cars but the point is still made. Whether we run out or just don't want to use it any longer doesn't really matter I guess. we are approaching the end of the petro-road and we should be getting ready for whatever lies beyond.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Post-human Earth: How the planet will recover from us - environment

[Link: New Scientist] "Not so, says James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He argues that past episodes are a poor guide to what will happen in the future, for the simple reason that the sun is brighter now than it was then. Add that to the mix and the release of methane hydrates could lead to catastrophic, unstoppable global warming - a so-called 'Venus syndrome' that causes the oceans to boil away and dooms the Earth to the fate of its broiling neighbour."

Most conversations about Climate Change focus on the short term. What will the weather be like around here as Global Warming kicks in? This article is grappling with the bigger picture. As we pour CO2 into the atmosphere by burning hydrocarbons, we are returning the earth to a state that hasn't been seen for millions of years. Who knows what will happen as this occurs? All of earth's systems will be effected. Much of the earth may well become uninhabitable. The good news is that we will run out of hydrocarbons to burn eventually and we won't be able to add CO2 to the atmosphere. The bad news is that when we run out of hydrocarbons to burn we will also be out of energy needed to combat the changing conditions.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Birth control could head off climate crunch

[Link: Reuters] Birth control and new technologies -- not lifestyle change alone -- may be needed to head off a combined climate, food and energy crunch later this century, said the head of Britain's science academy Martin Rees.

It is amazing how we can't talk about population control. I really don't think we will ever find a way to do it either. We are programmed to reproduce just like we are programmed to breath air, and limiting reproduction is an ultimate threat. But that doen't change the fact that there will soon be more of us than there are resources to support us. Population that we can't control will be controlled by natural processes and natural population processes are generally not very pretty.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Solar industry's promises bring environmental challenges for Tennessee

Solar industry's promises bring environmental challenges for Tennessee: "As the state tries to reap the benefits of a growing solar industry that could bring thousands of new jobs and billions in new investment, the massive projects also bring with them environmental challenges in the form of intensive manufacturing operations that will draw a tremendous amount of electricity from the state's power grid used to run sprawling chemical reactors.


With just two investments — Hemlock Semiconductor Group near Clarksville and a similar Wacker Chemie AG plant near Chattanooga — Tennessee is poised to become a nationwide leader in the production of polysilicon crystals, the basic building block for the solar industry. Together, these plants will cost at least $2.2 billion to construct."


Solar might be replacing hydrocarbon use in other states, but in Tennessee it looks like more of a tossup. Maybe solar power might have a little bigger "footprint" than most of us imagine.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

On American Sustainability - Anatomy of Societal Collapse (Summary)

[Link: The Oil Drum]
"As the historically abundant and cheap resources upon which our American way of life depends become increasingly scarce and expensive, a scenario that is already in process, the total level of natural resources and derived goods and services available for our consumption will decline dramatically, as must some combination of our population level and material living standards.

Absent immediate fundamental changes to both our distorted worldview and our dysfunctional resource utilization behavior, American society will collapse—not in 1000 years, or 500 years, or even 50 years; but almost certainly within 25 years. America, as we know it, will cease to exist well before the year 2050."

This article makes a strong statement about the true consequences of the sustainability quandary. Sustainability is not a direction of travel but rather a destination. As children of the age of growth, if we think about limits at all, we tend to think about ceilings. How much is too much? As a society that is living far beyond its means, however, we should be thinking about floors. How far do we have to fall?

All of the trappings of a modern, industrial society are interrelated. Both our products and our means of production are fed by unsustainable resource consumption. Somehow we will have to learn to produce sustainable products using sustainable production methods with sustainable sources of power if we are to maintain a functioning sustainable society. In addition we will probably have to figure out how to limit our actual numbers. None of this is a likely result, if we wait until the unsustainable resources are gone, or even until society realizes that they eventually will be gone.

All of this seems somewhat obvious to me. And yet, honestly, I cannot find a way to drop my lifelong habits and move towards a non-consumptive, or even lower consumption existence. The built in prejudices from living my life in a powerful, industrial society are difficult to ignore. For the vast majority of people even the concept of limits is still impossible to embrace. I think the author is right, the inevitable readjustment we are facing will, almost certainly, come as a surprise and we will probably never know what hit us.

Friday, May 08, 2009

Peak Oil: Global Oil Production’s Peaked, Analyst Says

[Link: WSJ]
"non-OPEC oil production apparently peaked in the first quarter of 2007, and given precipitous falls in oil output from Russia to Mexico, there’s not much hope for a recovery. OPEC production—and thus global output—peaked a little later, in the first quarter of 2008."
We are growing complacent about the resource situation, particularly oil. The disastrous economic situation and resultant collapse of oil prices has led us to believe that there is no longer an oil supply problem. It was all just another speculative investment bubble you see. But Peak Oil doesn't work that way. We aren't using as much oil as we did but we are still using a lot of oil. All we have done is take the pressure off of the suppliers and when demand firms up again we are right back in the thick of it.
This article from the Wall Street Journal says we have already slipped over the peak and when recovery comes we will be already on the downward slope. Trying to grow with a shrinking energy supply. It isn't going to be pretty.

Monday, March 09, 2009

Obama Overturns War on Science

[Link: Rolling Stone : National Affairs Daily]
"I am also signing a Presidential Memorandum directing the head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop a strategy for restoring scientific integrity to government decision making. To ensure that in this new Administration, we base our public policies on the soundest science; that we appoint scientific advisors based on their credentials and experience, not their politics or ideology; and that we are open and honest with the American people about the science behind our decisions."
This is very good news from the Obama Administration. For too long Science has been relegated to the status of "just another bit of noise in the political spectrum" by commentators whose opinions don't stand up to formal scientific scrutiny. If we are ever to protect ourselves from the energy/climate double whammy that is approaching us, we are going to need the assistance of unbiased scientific analysis.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Carbon dioxide emissions could last millenniums

[Link: McClatchy Washington Bureau]
"Ultimately, the amount of fossil fuel available could be enough to raise the atmospheric CO2 concentration higher than it has been in millions of years,"

Most of us are still thinking of climate change like we think of other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tornados and floods. They come, we recover and adjust, then things return to normal. As this article attests, Climate Change is not that kind of disaster. For all intents and purposes, Climate Change is forever. We have loaded up the atmosphere with carbon compounds that have been locked away in the earth's crust for hundreds of millions of years and that carbon is not going to go away quickly.

We have essentially done two permanent things. We have used up a significant portion of the irreplaceable hydrocarbon supply that we once had available, most of the easy supply in fact, and we have used it in such a way that the atmosphere has been drastically modified for the foreseeable future. These two effects now define the new world that we are living in and will be living in from now on.

We are far from accepting this new reality. Society works in slow motion even when things are obvious so a slowly evolving, ill-defined new reality isn't likely to get a quick response. As the consequences of these effects (reduced energy supply and more extreme weather) become apparent we will, of course, have to deal with them but we really should begin to prepare now. The longer we wait the harder it will become.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Magazine Preview - The Big Fix - Can Barack Obama Really Transform the U.S. Economy? - NYTimes.com

[Link: NYTimes.com] "For centuries, people have worried that economic growth had limits — that the only way for one group to prosper was at the expense of another. The pessimists, from Malthus and the Luddites and on, have been proved wrong again and again. Growth is not finite. But it is also not inevitable. It requires a strategy."

The MSM carries the "infinite growth" ball onto an uncertain field of play. It couldn't be stated more clearly, "Growth is not finite." With a good plan we can keep the game going forever. WRONG! With a really good plan we might be able to survive, but it isn't going to look like the modern Western model of ever growing consumption by an ever growing number of people. Infinite growth may be the only thing that will save our way of life but that doesn't prove it is real.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Two geologists on saving the earth

[Link: Energy Bulletin] "Our economic system is entirely based on the creation of materials. Material wealth comes out of the earth and the level of our lifestyle is entirely based on our consumption of resources. The thing that has allowed that to accelerate so there is even a middle class in many countries, including our own, is cheap energy. Petroleum. If that becomes less available, less cheap because it’s less available, that is going to limit everything that we do. It’s going to have a major impact. It’s going to limit whether we can produce non-petroleum alternatives."

This is a good discussion of the problems that we are going to be facing from now on in our society. The primary disconnect between our ambitions and our resources. We can have a materialistic culture with a few people or live frugally with a lot of people. In the long term our choice is to limit our numbers or our appetite. Unfortunately we have become so many that the long term is knocking at our door.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

How America Can Quit Its Oil Addiction

[Link: Newsweek Issues 2009: Rules for a New World | Newsweek.com]
"Around this cheap and versatile fuel, the United States built an impressive civilization—one featuring universal car ownership, highways stretching to the horizon, endless suburban tracts, affordable airline travel, malls, Disneyland and other aspects of the American Dream. But the United States no longer produces enough oil to sustain this civilization—yet it continues to rely on petroleum for a huge proportion of its energy needs."

People who should now know better continue to proclaim that if we really don't want to base our energy consumption on petroleum and other hydrocarbon supplies we need only change our minds and start towards using something else. Something that won't involve complicated political maneuvering with despicable foreign despots. Something that won't continue to feed vast quantities of carbon compounds into our atmosphere causing ongoing climate change. Something that won't require us to modify our extravagant lifestyles. Something, in fact, that doesn't exist.

It isn't a matter of will. There are no technologies that can be scaled to provide the energy density we need to go on with our life as is. Our lifestyle is a hydrocarbon lifestyle. Even if we could build a new infrastructure to harness the wind from continents filled with windmills, convert all of our roofs to solar collectors and convert all of our agriculture into producing biomass to be converted to fuels, the resulting world would not be the same as we have now. We would not have the same mobility or lifestyle flexibility that we have now. We would not have the disposable energy wealth to spend as we have now. Such a world would be complicated and difficult because it takes energy to build energy production. We would be realizing a much smaller marginal energy gain from these new supplies. As I have pondered before, how would windmills be built if we only had windmill power to build them with.

We use our petroleum reality based mind to imagine a new non-petroleum world. Forgetting that we wouldn't have any petroleum to build it with.