Pages

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Revisiting the Olduvai Theory

Most of us who are familiar with the Peak Oil theory have read the Olduvai Theory presented in Dieoff.org . In this theory Richard Duncan proposes that we are about to encounter a severe reduction in our global energy availability which will result in a major population decrease (the dieoff). In his presentation he shows one plot of oil production per capita and another of total energy use per capita vs. time. Both of those curves rise steeply to about 1980 then more or less flatten out. I have looked at those curves several times. But it is only recently that I began to appreciate what those curves are telling us.
Consider for a moment the steeply rising portion of the curve representing the middle part of the last century. This is not a curve of energy production it is a plot of energy production per capita. With the population increasing at the high rate that it was (and still is) during that time this shape represents a massive increase in energy production such that the per capita energy production was increasing exponentially. I have to believe that the population was chasing the oil production up that curve. Then, about 1980, the curve flattened out.
Let's make it very clear, it does not imply that energy production in any way flattened out, it only indicates that the rate of growth of energy production has slowed so that it is only keeping pace with the increase in population. Think about that in Peak Oil terms for a moment. When energy/oil production does actually flatten out (the famous undulating plateau), or if it already has, that means that per capita energy consumption is going to drop accordingly. We don't have to produce less oil to begin to move into the downslope of the Olduvai curve, we only have to produce at a lower rate than the population increase in order for our per capita energy use to plummet. That is probably already happening because a flat production rate is very much less than the population increase. And if it is, we are probably already headed into the fall. As soon as our energy production begins to flatten out, the energy available for each of us in the world will begin to fall. The backside of the production curve is almost meaningless. By that time the population will probably be chasing production down the curve.

No comments: