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Thursday, November 02, 2006

Peak Oil is not the problem



Let's face it. "Peak Oil" is just a math problem. In the real world it doesn't mean a thing. In the real world there used to be a lot of oil. In the real world there eventually won't be much oil left at all. That is because in between those two real world end points we will be producing and using as much of it as we can. We can't help ourselves. Peak Oil is just as much oil as we ever can produce. The usage over time might look like that curve, it might not. My first inclination is not to worry about how much oil I use. I won't effect the final outcome. As much of it as can be used will all eventually be used no matter what I do.
That isn't the whole story though. Even though I believe we are bound to quickly use it all up, I do feel there are good reasons not to. From a standpoint of the climate, for instance, we shouldn't use oil at all. We should leave it in the ground and find another way to power our lives that doesn't carry the cost to our atmosphere of carbon based fuels. There is another compelling reason for not using oil as well. When it is gone it is gone. Anything that oil might have provided to future generations will be foreclosed. Leaving aside the fact that they would never be able to fashion an industrial civilization like our own without oil, our descendants will not have the benefits of this resource no matter what grand magic could potentially be derived from its use (think medicines, plastics, industrial chemicals).
We were given a great gift. By using it up as quickly as we can, and in many cases for completely non-essential purposes, we are taking a huge pile of chips off the table for future generations. Can you imagine explaining someday to your great-granddaughter that she can't have her petrochemical based artificial kidney because you used the oil to pave your driveway. I don't think it is too radical to claim that our most important task as a species right now might be to find a way to live with out oil. No matter how little we use we will eventually run out. If we are lucky we will learn how to live without it before that happens. If we are really lucky we will be able to save a little for posterity.

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