Past, Present and Future

Everything has a past, a present and a future. Humankind is no exception. Lately, I have been thinking about our (for argument's sake I have included myself in humankind) past, present and future. I have come to the conclusion that our past existed from the time we separated from the evolutionary chimpanzee line (or more accurately from an extinct line that became both humans and the modern chimpanzee) to become distinctly human, until the time that we first extracted hydrocarbons from the earth to produce energy. Our present, then, spans the time between our first use of hydrocarbons and now. That is pretty long time to be calling the present you might say. It isn't really, it is just a tiny bit of time in our life as a unique species (see below). I think of the present in this way because it has resulted in a way of life for us that is unsustainable and will soon disappear in favor of what I now think of as our future.
So lets say that the age of hydrocarbons is our present. What does that portend for the future. Hydrocarbons are in finite supply. They aren't always easy to find, and we certainly haven't found them all yet, but there will come a time when we can't find enough to satisfy our desires. We don't know that yet. The idea that we may have to live without hydrocarbons hasn't sunk in to our collective psyches. At that point in time when we "suddenly" realize that we are going to run out of hydrocarbons someday, and can't possibly replace them with sustainable energy, we will have entered into our future.
What will this future be like. Who knows? Unfortunately we have, with the help of all that cheap energy, multiplied our numbers beyond any hope of maintaining our present level of consumption once hydrocarbons are constrained. Undoubtedly, in the future we will be required to reduce our use of the planets resources in every way . We have not begun to address those questions however. We haven't, because we haven't admitted to ourselves that we need to. The future is not yet here. Oil wars and climate change are trying to tell us. Eventually we will understand.

Just for fun. A while ago I put a little timeline together as a way to help me visualize the unfolding of humankind's story. My device was to fold all of the history of humankind into a 24 hour period. The life of humanity in one day. I was very surprised by the perspective that it gave. I am placing it here to reinforce my claim that modern history is just a moment in time.

A Day in the Life of Humanity

12AM Midnight (24 hrs ago) - the genealogical line of Great Apes that will become Homo Sapiens splits from the line that will become Chimpanzees.
4PM (8 hrs ago) - 16 hrs later humankind has made much progress. They have mostly developed the upright stance, large brain and tool using specialties that will eventually be their trademark as true humans.
8PM (4 hrs ago) - In another 4 hrs they will have mostly achieved their final status in preparation for life as Homo Sapiens. Their physical stature, brain capacity, tool making skills and probably the use of language and culture have been established. They are master of their domain which is most of the temperate eastern hemisphere. They are accomplished hunter-gatherers. There are still other hominid lines around at this time. They will not survive.
11:57PM (3 mins. ago) - It is finally time for a major change in their lifestyle. For the last 23 hours and 57 minutes they have been living under nature's rules, moving from place to place and obtaining everything they need from their local environment or by trading with fellow travelers whose path they might cross. But now, a few humans decide that they are going to control the life cycles of some of the plant's and animals they need to sustain themselves. They are going to become farmers. This decision results in several compromises and leads to many complications. They will need to stay in one place to tend their domesticated plants and animals. They will have to cooperate with each other. They will have to bring the resources they need to their new fixed living place if they are not available locally. Hierarchal social organization, economic relationships, division of labor, technical innovation - many new concepts emerge from this new way of life. There are probably several million humans now.
11:59PM (1 min. ago) - By now this new human lifestyle has become the norm. Great cities, sprawling nation-states and grand cultures and religions have grown around the fixed locations suited for growing plants and animals for food. Humans have spread to nearly all of the land masses of the earth. Resources are sometimes exhausted. Civilizations come and go and wars are fought to secure and obtain resources from neighboring human populations. Humans begin to use writing to record their activities. Great constructions begin to occur and monuments to rise. The human population could be as many as 25 million.
11:59:25PM (35 secs. ago) To honor a central figure in one of the major religions of the world, many humans decide to begin counting time now, celebrating his birth.
11:59:55PM (5 secs. ago) It is time for another major change in their lifestyle. Until this point in time humans have been limited in their use of energy to that provided by the sun and the biological, wind and water cycles that it drives. But clever humans have found a new way to produce energy, by burning underground combustible wastes left over from ancient biological processes. This activity bypasses some very serious constraints on human activity while postponing the negative feedback of its own use into the future. Increased use of these resources allow significant improvements in the quality of life for many more humans. Human labor can now be reduced or amplified at will. Tools can be manufactured that will allow more tools to be built that will, in turn, exponentially raise the ability of humans to consume resources. Population may now be as high as 800 million humans.
11:59:58PM (2 secs. ago) A new form of the stored energy is found. It is in a powerful, portable liquid form that can be moved easily to where it is needed. All humans covet this new energy source. The new energy source enables great increases in resource conversion and food production. Many more humans arise to consume these newly produced goods. The world soon devotes itself, full time, to procuring, producing, consuming and protecting this new energy source. There are 1500 million humans on the earth now.
11:59:59.95PM (.05 secs. ago) At this time a few humans realize that, in the last two seconds, half of all this wondrous new energy source known to exist has already been used up. Oh, and by the way, in that same two seconds 5000 million additional humans became poised to use up the rest.
12AM Midnight: You are here.