Solving Fermi's Paradox

...On another level, though, Fermi’s Paradox can be restated in another and far more threatening way. The logic of the paradox depends on the assumption that unlimited technological progress is possible, and it can be turned without too much difficulty into a logical refutation of the assumption. If unlimited technological progress is possible, then there should be clear evidence of technologically advanced species in the cosmos; there is no such evidence; therefore unlimited technological progress is impossible.

[Link: The Archdruid Report]

I have proposed occasionally on this blog that I think the belief in ongoing technical progress that defines the human world view of the future, is probably wrong. It is my opinion the future of mankind will be much more humble than most of us imagine and that our dreams of space travel and unlimited growth will prove to be an unobtainable destiny. Up until now my doubt was based on a gut-level instinct and I felt that for someone to make the move to this trend of thought would require a major leap of faith because my, and most of humanity's, world view has been severely distorted by living in the midst of the age of hydrocarbons.

To my delight, however, I stumbled on this article by John Michael Greer of the Archdruid Report in which he develops a logical and, for me, cogent argument for the impossibility of unlimited technological progress not only for humanity but for any living species. I really believe that in order for us to begin to repair the damage we have done to the earth and to prepare for our "real" future we will first all have to accept this reality of ultimate limitations. In this article, Mr. Greer has done a good job of helping us to get to that point. Read it and see if you don't agree.

We are all peakists now - Schlesinger

[Link: David Strahan | An interview with Dr. James Schlesinger]

Wow. The big boys are coming out of the Peak Oil Closet now, aren't they. The papers and airwaves have been filled with Alan Greenspan's claim, from his new book, that Iraq was indeed about oil. Of course he is backing down in the heat of day. Now this linked interview with former US Energy Secretary Dr. James Schlesinger in which he admits that behind closed doors the oil company executives have conceded that Peak Oil is eminent. And I expect Dr. Schlesinger is not only privy to the information he is sharing but probably is sharing it with full knowledge of those he claims to be quoting. I have often wondered what form the official disclosure of Peak Oil would take. I always supposed it would be a stream of increasingly more authoritative pronouncements subtly fed to us over time until we could no longer deny their message. I would not be surprised that we are beginning to hear our "official" warning signals.

Putin's ambition

By American estimates, 25 percent of the world's oil and mineral deposits are locked beneath the northern ice cap, but will become available if the world warms enough. It would not be the first time that the Arctic has been free of ice. Analysis of soil samples drilled beneath the mile-thick ice cover have shown that Greenland was in the past rich in forests, vegetation and animal life.

[Link: The Washington Times]

This may be one of those situations where everybody in the world is crazy but me, but I think not. Am I the only one who reads these stories of everyone scrambling for the oil riches in the Arctic and can't believe that the only concern seems to be whether the ice is going to melt fast enough and who is going to get nuked getting at all that oil? Come on guys. The reason the ice is melting is that we are burning too much oil! The best chance for the survival of our way of life, and maybe even us, is if that oil stays locked up by the ice. By the time the Arctic is ice free we will be in the throes of a massive environmental/climate shift that will alter our way of life beyond anything humanity has endured in the past and that will last indefinitely into the future. I have to believe that by that time we will have realized what we have done and removed ourselves from the hydrocarbon age.